Uncertainty drives carbon ambition, even as deployment potential still at some remove

In the October issue of Joule, Grant et al. explore how uncertainties in three CDR pathways (BECCS, DACCS, and afforestation/reforestation) can be incorporated into integrated assessment models, resulting an additional 10 gigatons CO2e requiring mitigation by 2030. This finding underscores importance accelerating research, design, development. Main TextIntegrated models (IAMs) are widely used tools for informing policy making have been central to results reports Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. recent years, these helped clarify important role that carbon dioxide removal (CDR) deployment will play complementing emissions reduction efforts as nations address climate change.IAMs serve optimize economic technological decision achieve targets. Despite their complexity, IAMs currently lack social political dimensions1Doukas H. Nikas A. González-Eguino M. Arto I. Anger-Kraavi From integrative: Delivering Paris Agreement.Sustainability. 2018; 10: 2299Crossref Scopus (57) Google Scholar would more effectively represent underlying decisions. One example this limitation is may reflect a given trajectory reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. While one minimize costs among variety decarbonization pathways—with assumptions about cost declines following innovation deployment—real-world requires federal state advances at time when there wide uncertainty future capabilities.This applies implementation approaches. last month’s al.2Grant N. Hawkes Mittal S. Gambhir The implications uncertain potential. 2021Abstract Full Text PDF (6) conduct unique survey “feasible potential” from experts field use produce probability distribution own IAM through stochastic optimization. By differentiating “technical” or “sustainable” potentials, they aim account considerations surrounding cost-reductions technology readiness produced innovation, institutional barriers deployment, other social, environmental, governance issues influence ultimate method.Grant approach estimate require 2030, accounting uncertainty. authors further argue justifies massive ambition coming decade. short: technical help narrow range policymakers.The approaches explored very different stages development deployment. These include bioenergy with capture storage (BECCS), direct air (DACCS), afforestation/reforestation (AR). Other burgeoning forms storage—including ocean capture, soil sequestration, enhanced mineralization—also show tremendous potential but not focus al.Each examined challenges, innovations enable We several possible ways global-scale technologies better validate stored decrease associated projected feasible potentials BECCS, AR, (see Figure 1).Policy momentum public support mechanical (DAC) has accelerated tremendously over past decade, Swiss company Climeworks commencing operation world’s largest DAC project, “Orca”, outside Reykjavik September 2021. 4,000 tons CO2/year facility drawing down drop bucket relative gigaton scale necessary addressing change. Reaching major reductions. For solid adsorbent like demonstrated Climeworks, than 70% total capital expenditure operating expenses costs. Moreover, experience amine-based sorbents conventional plants suggests solids degrade break time.4NASEM(National Academies Sciences, Engineering, Medicine). Negative reliable sequestration: research agenda. National Press, 2019Google scale-up industrial maximize CO2 uptake, reducing costs, increasing sorbent lifetimes remains active area research.5McQueen Vaz Gomes K. McCormick C. Blumanthal Pisciotta Wilcox J. A review (DAC): scaling up commercial innovating future. Progress Energy, 2021Google Competition liquid solvent approaches, which operate substantially higher temperatures, entire departure standard pressure vacuum swing paradigms (such moisture-swing electro-swing approaches) remain attractive well.Carbonate weathering DOC areas ripe innovation. Carbonation natural process store scale, bottleneck access alkali substances Mg− Ca− readily want react presence CO2. Enhanced agricultural landscapes also receiving increased attention its ecosystem benefits.6Beerling D.J. Kantzas E.P. Lomas M.R. Wade P. Eufrasio R.M. Renforth Sarkar B. Andrews M.G. James R.H. Pearce C.R. al.Potential large-scale via rock croplands.Nature. 2020; 583: 242-248https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2448-9Crossref PubMed (131) Used amendment, dust applied croplands, where it supports sequestration soils while releasing nutrients critical plant growth, such calcium, magnesium, potassium, phosphorus.Another emerging pathway falls scope ocean-based kelp seaweed sinking. Ocean-based offers blue-sky (or blue-sea, case) opportunity increase expanding our portfolio beyond just terrestrial systems. provide dissolving atmospheric below $50/ton. Naturally occurring macroalgae already significant global cycle, 173 TgC/year sequestered growth sinking.7Sclarsic, S.M.H. (2021). bioengineering roadmap negative technologies. Masters thesis, (Massachusetts Institute Technology).Google There private investment cultivation sinking deep floor (below 1,000 m) permanently removed biosphere >1,000 years. Recently US Department Energy’s ARPA-E MARINER program funded testing farming, number companies working develop systems kelp-sinking per year open questions remain.8Temple Companies hoping grow carbon-sucking rushing ahead science.https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/09/19/1035889/kelp-carbon-removal-seaweed-sinking-climate-change/Date: Biochemical engineering could employed species buoyancy, faster content applications.Beyond themselves, needed monitoring verification removals. especially true sequestration. At large scales, cycle relatively well-constrained. know, example, sequesters some 30% However, land-based spatial temporal resolutions limited measurement sensing quantifying plot level expensive, time-consuming, labor intensive.9USGCRPSecond State Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2): Sustained Assessment Report. U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2018Google below-ground stocks. above-ground stocks, those trees, shrubs, grasses, passively monitored remote (e.g., NASA Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation Lidar),10Dubayah R. Blair J.B. Goetz Fatoyinbo L. Hansen Healey Hofton Hurtt G. Kellner Luthcke Armston al.The Investigation: High-resolution laser ranging Earth’s forests topography.Science Remote Sensing. 1: 100002Crossref baselines changes data mineral-organic matter interactions, microbiology chemistry, environmental conditions, variables inform project productivity rates, residence carbon. But tackling challenge. Systems Monitoring Analytics Renewable Transportation Fuels Agricultural Resources Management (SMARTFARM) supporting validation goal resolution certainty organic order new crediting mechanisms. advancing directly measure fluxes carbon, exploring integration drone-captured digital imagery eddy covariance networked systems, fostering depth.Emissions priority change, scientific consensus now tells us essential meeting goals. pace magnitude highly variable literature, demonstrate optimization result GtCO2e needs mitigated Their illustrates dual conclusions (1) driving decade (2) yield dividends accelerate net-zero. Integrated capabilities. method. policymakers. Each 1). Policy well. Carbonate phosphorus. Another applications. Beyond depth. Emissions potentialGrant al.JouleOctober 20, 2021In BriefWe expert (CDR). Experts suggest uncertain. 2020s. Uncertainty should encourage greater action 2020s, deeper cuts, renewables low-carbon technology, phaseout fossil fuels energy system. 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